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XERO STOCK 2014: UP THEN, OUCH Featured

Rod Drury, Xero A chart showing Xero's stock performance for 2014 looks like a drawing by someone playing with fractals. There's a steep, jagged upturn to a brief peak, followed by a steep (but not quite as steep) downturn The opening price today was $15.70, far closer to its $15-per-share low than the $45.99-per-share all-time high reached in mid Spring. That's unlikely to change much by January 1.

The consensus of five analysts following the stock is underperform, although one long-term stalwart has a "buy". A description given in November 2013 by Motley Fool now sounds very prescient: "Buying shares in Xero is a high-risk punt." But then there's Fidelity Investments, which bought stock in the fall at from $15.85 to $21.64 a share—bargain shopping?—to garner 5.4 percent of outstanding shares. The story is Intuit proved a far tougher and nimbler opponent than Xero anticipated (well, my view) and it's difficult to beat a dominant player on its home turf without a product that has an overwhelming advantage. Then there's whatever happened with North American CEO Peter Karpas leaving after seven months.  Xero CEO Rod Drury was reported to have said  it was possibly "time to pull off the Band-aids". During the fall, the company was holding to the contention it would go public in 2015 to get a U.S. stock listing. Back in the summer, a New Zealand publication quoted Drury as saying that would be more "an exercise in brand building rather than raising capital." And Xero did pass 400,000 customers by this month, still growing rapidly. But we'd all probably like to hear the view of investors who plopped down $150 million in U.S. dollars on Xero in October last year.

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