The betting is that AX could be as late as 2014, although attendees at a NAV session were told Microsoft would go to a one-year release cycle instead of the current two to three years. But given the pre-conference buzz that Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer would make a major announcement at the keynote, what he said had about as much substance as well, a cloud. Attendees wondered why someone whose time is so valuable would show up to deliver so little. I opined in another article that the key is likely the fact that the speech was 15-to-25 minutes shorter than the advertised two hours. Execs rarely miss the chance to fill air time. Since there was a cloud reception on Sunday, apparently for key channel members, my guess is that something was pulled from the prepared remarks. One person who attended the cloud reception doubted Microsoft can meet its schedule because it can't guarantee the availability of a good supply of third-party products. I'm guessing reaction at the reception caused Microsoft to retreat for now. Too bad they couldn't get Judy Collins to sing, "I really don't know clouds, at all."